What needs to happen for Armenia to reach the playoffs of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers?

There are two matchdays left in the European qualification for the 2026 World Cup, and they will determine which teams from Europe qualify for the tournament. The group winners will qualify directly for the World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico, while the second-place teams will go to the playoffs together with four additional teams based on the Nations League ranking.

After four matchdays, the Armenian national team is in 4th place in Group F and still has a mathematical chance of finishing second. However, the path to the playoffs is extremely difficult — much will depend not only on Armenia’s own results but also on the results of their competitors.

Group F standings:

1. Portugal — 10 points (goal difference +7)
2. Hungary — 5 points (+1)
3. Ireland — 4 points (−1)
4. Armenia — 3 points (−7)

It is important to note that in FIFA qualification, if teams are tied on points, the first tiebreaker is total goal difference, not head-to-head results. This means that in most scenarios, Armenia will need not just to collect points, but also to significantly improve their goal difference.

Remaining matches:

November 13

• Armenia vs. Hungary

• Ireland vs. Portugal

November 16

• Portugal vs. Armenia

• Hungary vs. Ireland

Scenarios in which Armenia can finish in second place

1. Two victories

Armenia defeats both Hungary and Portugal (ending with 9 points).
In this case, Ireland must not win both of their matches — they may win one, but the second must be a draw or a loss.

2. Win against Hungary + draw against Portugal

Armenia finishes with 7 points.
At the same time:

• Ireland loses to Portugal, and
• The match between Hungary and Ireland ends in a draw.

3. Win against Hungary by 5 goals and a narrow loss to Portugal

Armenia moves ahead on goal difference (6 points).
Additionally:

• Ireland loses to Portugal, and
• Hungary and Ireland draw.

4. Win against Hungary by 7 goals

A similar scenario but slightly more flexible:
Ireland may even draw against Portugal and still remain below Armenia.

5. Draw with Hungary and a miracle scenario

If Armenia draws with Hungary, only one extremely unlikely path remains:

• Ireland suffers a heavy defeat to Portugal (e.g., by 5 goals),
• Then Ireland narrowly beats Hungary,
• And Armenia defeats Portugal by at least 3 goals.

A loss to Hungary eliminates Armenia's chances of finishing second completely.

Conclusion

Armenia still has a chance to reach the playoffs, but the qualification scenarios require not only victories, but also a significant improvement in goal difference and favorable results in other matches. In practical terms, the match against Hungary on November 13 will be decisive — it will determine whether Armenia continues to realistically fight for second place or ends the qualification campaign early.

The very first match in the group against Portugal, which Armenia lost 0–5, greatly complicated the task for Yeghishe Melikyan’s team. However, this situation could still be different if not for the unfortunate defeat in Ireland (0–1 and the red card to Barseghyan).