San Marino and Moldova Still Have a Chance to Qualify for the 2026 World Cup — Against All Logic

San Marino’s national team, sitting last in Group H with zero points, still theoretically has a chance to reach the playoffs for the 2026 World Cup — thanks to the complicated UEFA Nations League qualification system.

According to the current Nations League ranking:

• Group winners Spain, Germany, Portugal, and France have already guaranteed at least a playoff spot (marked as (X)).

• Norway (T), despite not being in the top 4 of the Nations League ranking, can still qualify directly through the regular qualifiers.

• At the moment, Wales, Northern Ireland, Sweden, and Romania (‡) hold the right to participate in the playoffs via the Nations League — these are group winners who are not currently in the top two of their qualifying groups.

• Next in the ranking are Moldova (Z) and San Marino (Z) — teams that certainly won’t finish in the top two but could still enter the playoffs if the higher-ranked teams (like Romania and Northern Ireland) qualify directly.

Thus, the paradox is that if Romania and Northern Ireland both finish second in their groups, the Nations League playoff spots would open up for Moldova and San Marino — the two weakest teams in European qualification. And this scenario is not impossible.

For this incredible scenario to become reality, San Marino needs to… lose heavily to Romania in the final match. Such a result could help Romania take second place — indirectly opening the playoff door for San Marino itself.