World Cup 2026 European Playoff Semifinals: Full Breakdown of Paths A–D, Odds and Predictions

The European qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup is reaching its final stage. 16 national teams are still competing for a place in the finals, and the playoff semifinals promise big matchups, unexpected twists, and intense battles.

We’ve compiled a complete overview of all paths (A–D) with the latest odds and analysis.

Path A: Italy with no room for error

Italy — Northern Ireland
Italy surprisingly failed to qualify directly and must now go through the playoffs. However, head-to-head stats are entirely in Italy’s favor: unbeaten since 1958 and no goals conceded in the last seven matches.

Head coach Michael O’Neill calls the match an “opportunity,” not a problem.

Odds:

• Italy win — 1.28

• Draw — 5.6

• Northern Ireland win — 11.0

Wales — Bosnia and Herzegovina
Wales has never beaten Bosnia in four matches. Still, home advantage and current form make them favorites.

Odds:

• Wales win — 1.72

• Draw — 3.65

• Bosnia and Herzegovina win — 5.4

Path B: balance and experience

Ukraine — Sweden
One of the most evenly matched ties. Ukraine relies on physical strength, while Sweden focuses on attacking potential.

Odds:

• Ukraine win — 3.25

• Draw — 3.25

• Sweden win — 2.30

Poland — Albania
Poland historically dominates, but Albania remains a tough opponent due to disciplined defense.

Odds:

• Poland win — 1.70

• Draw — 3.55

• Albania win — 5.40

Path C: Turkey and Czech Republic pushing forward

Turkey — Romania
Turkey is the favorite, but Mircea Lucescu’s experience could be decisive.

Odds:

• Turkey win — 1.44

• Draw — 4.9

• Romania win — 6.6

Slovakia — Kosovo
A completely new matchup. Kosovo comes in strong, unbeaten in five matches.

Odds:

• Slovakia win — 2.3

• Draw — 3.1

• Kosovo win — 3.4

Path D: Denmark among top favorites

Denmark — North Macedonia
Denmark missed direct qualification but remains one of the main playoff favorites.

Odds:

• Denmark win — 1.21

• Draw — 6.4

• North Macedonia win — 14.0

Denmark is one of the clearest favorites of the entire stage.

Czech Republic — Ireland
The Czech Republic performs confidently at home, but Ireland’s win over Portugal adds intrigue.

Odds:

• Czech Republic win — 1.97

• Draw — 3.45

• Ireland win — 4.0

Summary and Prediction

The playoff semifinals promise to be intense and unpredictable.

Main favorites:

• Italy

• Denmark

• Turkey

• Poland

Most balanced matches:

• Ukraine — Sweden

• Slovakia — Kosovo

• Czech Republic — Ireland