Champions League: Round of 16 Second Legs — Predictions, Odds and Lineups

The second-leg matches of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 will take place on March 17 and 18. After the first legs, the intrigue in several ties has already faded, as convincing wins by the favorites have almost determined some quarterfinalists. However, a few matchups remain wide open, and those games could provide the most dramatic moments of the stage.

Below is a breakdown of all Champions League ties, each team's chances of reaching the quarterfinals, squad news and key expectations ahead of the games.

March 17 — Tuesday

Sporting vs Bodø/Glimt

First leg: 0–3

After losing the first match, Sporting find themselves in a very difficult situation. According to bookmakers, the Lisbon club has minimal chances of progressing to the quarterfinals: odds for Sporting to advance are 4.9, while Bodø/Glimt are priced at 1.18.

The Norwegian side approaches the second leg without any injury concerns, while Sporting has several squad problems. Nevertheless, the hosts are expected to start aggressively and apply pressure from the opening minutes.

Bodø/Glimt head coach Kjetil Knutsen made it clear that his team will not play defensively just to protect the result. Sporting also still believe in a comeback, although they admit that it would require an almost perfect performance.

Expected Sporting lineup:
Rui Silva; Fresneda, Diomande, Gonçalo Inácio, Araújo; Hjulmand, Morita; Catamo, Francisco Trincão, Pedro Gonçalves; Suárez.

Sporting absences:
Luís Guilherme (ankle), Ricardo Mangas (muscle), Kochorashvili (muscle), Ioannidis (knee), Geovany Quenda (foot).
At risk of suspension: Hjulmand, Suárez.

Expected Bodø/Glimt lineup:
Haikin; Sjøvold, Bjørtuft, Gundersen, Bjørkan; Evjen, Berg, Fet; Blomberg, Høgh, Hauge.

Bodø/Glimt absences: none.
At risk of suspension: Auklend, Berg, Gundersen.

Match expectation:
Formally the tie is still alive, but Bodø/Glimt hold a huge advantage. The Norwegian side no longer looks like a team dangerous only at home — they play organized, intense football and use space effectively. Sporting will have to take risks from the start, which could create counterattacking opportunities for the visitors.

Chelsea vs Paris Saint-Germain

First leg: 2–5

Another tie where the favorite is almost decided after the first match. Chelsea are given 8.5 odds to qualify, while PSG’s chances are priced at 1.07.

The London side again approaches an important game with defensive injury issues, while PSG have a more stable squad situation. After losing 2–5 in the first leg, Chelsea must attack aggressively while also avoiding the mistakes that proved costly earlier.

PSG insist the tie is not finished and the second match will be very different. Nevertheless, the French club remains the clear favorite based on both the first-leg result and overall performance.

Expected Chelsea lineup:
Sánchez; Gusto, Fofana, Chalobah, Cucurella; Lavia, Caicedo; Palmer, Fernández, Pedro Neto; João Pedro.

Chelsea absences:
Colwill (knee), James (hamstring).
Doubts: Gittens, Estevão.
Suspension risk: Fernández, Andrey Santos.

Expected PSG lineup:
Safonov; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Nuno Mendes; Zaïre-Emery, Vitinha, João Neves; Kvaratskhelia, Dembélé, Barcola.

PSG absences:
Fabián Ruiz (knee), Ndjantu (hamstring).
Suspension risk: Kvaratskhelia, Nuno Mendes.

Match expectation:
On paper Chelsea’s comeback chances are limited. An early goal and high pressing will be crucial for the hosts, especially since PSG can sometimes struggle when building from the back. However, excessive risk could lead to dangerous PSG counterattacks.

Manchester City vs Real Madrid

First leg: 0–3

One of the biggest matchups of the round has already lost much of its intrigue after the first leg. Manchester City are given 4.3 odds to qualify, while Real Madrid are 1.22 favorites.

Pep Guardiola’s team must not only win but overturn a three-goal deficit against a club historically very strong in Champions League knockout stages. Both teams also face squad problems, especially Madrid.

Guardiola urges his players to focus on winning the match itself. Real Madrid, meanwhile, stress that they cannot relax despite their comfortable advantage.

Expected Manchester City lineup:
Donnarumma; Matheus Nunes, Rúben Dias, Guehi, Aït-Nouri; Rodri, O’Riley; Semenyo, Bernardo Silva, Cherki; Haaland.

Expected Real Madrid lineup:
Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Huijsen, Rüdiger, Fran García; Valverde, Tchouaméni, Camavinga; Brahim Díaz, Arda Güler, Vinícius Júnior.

Match expectation:
City will almost certainly start with aggressive pressing and a high defensive line. The key question is whether Real Madrid can withstand the early pressure and exploit the space behind the defense. Without Mbappé this task becomes harder, but Vinícius’ pace still makes Madrid dangerous on the counter.

Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen

First leg: 1–1

One of the most intriguing ties of the day. After a draw in the first match, the race for the quarterfinal spot remains open. Bookmakers favor Arsenal: 1.13 against 6.0 for Leverkusen.

Mikel Arteta’s side will play at home, which automatically makes them favorites. However, Leverkusen have already shown they can impose their tempo and remain well organized.

Match expectation:
This could become one of the most tactically interesting matchups of the round. With the score level after the first leg, details such as set pieces, transitional mistakes or individual moments may decide the outcome.

March 18 — Wednesday

Barcelona vs Newcastle

First leg: 1–1

Another tie that remains open after the first match. Barcelona are favored to advance with odds of 1.30, compared to 3.5 for Newcastle.

Expectation:
Newcastle have looked more confident in the Champions League than in the Premier League this season. However, playing away at Barcelona will require discipline without the ball and efficient finishing.

Bayern Munich vs Atalanta

First leg: 6–1

The most one-sided matchup of the round. Bayern have almost secured their place in the quarterfinals after the first leg.

The main talking point is Bayern’s goalkeeper situation: due to injuries, 16-year-old Leonard Prescott could start.

Liverpool vs Galatasaray

First leg: 0–1

Despite losing the first match, Liverpool are still considered favorites to qualify: 1.39 vs 3.0.

Liverpool at Anfield will try to impose a high tempo from the start, while Galatasaray must withstand heavy pressure.

Tottenham vs Atlético Madrid

First leg: 2–5

Tottenham lost the first leg by three goals and are now heavy underdogs. Odds for Spurs to qualify are 12.0, while Atlético are priced at 1.03.

Expectation:
Tottenham must attack from the start, but such an open game usually suits Diego Simeone’s Atlético, who excel at counterattacking and controlling the tempo.

Where to Expect the Biggest Drama

Based on the first-leg scores and bookmaker odds, the most intriguing ties are expected in three matchups:

• Arsenal — Bayer Leverkusen

• Barcelona — Newcastle

• Liverpool — Galatasaray